USDCHF Options – US Dollar continues to sink

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USDCHF Options – US Dollar continues to sink

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USDCHF Forex Chart

Ideas

I change the target for my past forecast. Perhaps the USDCHF will begin to fall earlier (after reaching one of the resistance lines). Target – 0.9627

expecting continue upside move after broken the bullFlag. ThnakYou

Intraday sell, watch for break down

Last week USDCHF was under pressure and hit 500 pips downside and this week Usdchf Price correction complete upside and now next move downside for a correction towards support 0.9610 ��SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ✅S1= 0.9680 ✅S2=0.9610 ✴️R1=0.9760 ✴️R2=0.9840 Please like, share, comments and follow me to get daily base analysis Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.

USDCHF rebounded from 50% fibo level breaking through downtrend line price based on key level around 0.96600 price above SMA 100 RSI in uptrend line MACD shows bearish momentum weakness if price broken level 0.9693 it will confirming bullish movement to supply zone around 0.99000

Price currently make some correction. we can sell for continuation when price retesting 61.8 level and neckline area. or we can wait until price break trendline for some confirmation

In the name of ALLAH who is most merciful and the master. We strictly take trading as a business, not a gambling stuff. We have calculated approximate risk to reward ratio on every single trade with predefined profit/loss levels. Please note: -> Never go beyond 1.5% risk of your total trading capital on a single trade, -> Always move your.

Looking short on USDCHF also there we have 61.80 golden fib let’s wait any impulse before enter the trade let’s see

we can see that the price is moving in an uptrend channel. so we have decent opportunities to go long with the trend. however, we are waiting for the price to get rejected at 0.98600 for our short entry. trade at your own risk and happy trading.

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61.8% Fib trading.

As we see on 1Hour Chart Breaking triangle should make a great fall on it. Waiting confirmation of breaking out and closing out.

Technicals

Profile

USD CHF (US Dollar / Swiss Franc)

The USDCHF, also known as the “swissie” is the fifth most traded currency in the Forex market. It is considered to a safe haven pair due to its stability and neutral character of Switzerland and is a reserve currency used by markets worldwide.

USD/JPY: Trade War to Sink Consumer Confidence & US Dollar

US DOLLAR CURRENCY VOLATILITY ELEVATED AHEAD OF AUGUST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

  • The US Dollar turns to high-impact economic data for its next major catalyst with Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence report
  • USDJPY overnight implied volatility spiked to 10.01% as forex traders gear up for potentially sizable spot price swings
  • Find out the basics and strategies behind Forex News Trading

Spot USDJPY has been quite volatile over the last few trading sessions as the sentiment-geared currency pair whipsaws in response to the latest US-China trade war headlines. After getting crushed well below the 105.00 handle to kick off the week, spot USDJPY has since recovered owing to reports that China wishes to restart trade talks with the US following last week’s trade war escalation. The upbeat headlines – although heard by markets several times before – appear to have so far rekindled risk appetite, but that could quickly change if Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence report spooks traders.

US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

US Consumer confidence has gyrated since peaking last October when equities initially began to succumb to slowing global GDP growth driven largely by the US-China trade war. Although July’s Consumer Confidence data came in better than expected at 135.7, the timing of the report likely received a boost hopes for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates in addition to the Trump-Xi G20 Summit meeting and apparent de-escalation in Sino-American trade tensions at the time.

US TREASURY YIELD CURVE INVERSION FANS RECESSION FEARS

Since then, traders have been taken aback by another flareup in US-China trade war uncertainty following retaliatory tariff threats from both nations amid flashing red recession signals like the US Treasury yield curve inverting along the 2-year and 10-year maturities. In light of this, Tuesday’s release of US Consumer Confidence data for August is expected to drop to a reading of 129.0 according to Bloomberg’s median survey estimate. Also noteworthy is the latest consumer sentiment reading, a similar survey of consumers, which could foreshadow a big miss when the August US Consumer Confidence data crosses the wires.

FED INTEREST RATE CUT PROBABILITIES (SEPTEMBER 2020)

A datapoint that comes in materially below consensus has potential to damage risk appetite as well as boost Fed rate cut bets with both market reactions standing to send spot USDJPY swooning. On the contrary, another better-than-expected reading could encourage the recovery in sentiment seen so far this week but is not likely to jolt rate traders enough to question the probability of another 25bps interest rate cut next month. While consumer confidence may not be a primary economic indicator obsessed over by the Federal Reserve, the gauge likely factors into the central bank’s outlook and a prolonged deterioration in the headline figure may encourage accommodative monetary policy action.

USDJPY RISK REVERSAL HINTS AT DOWNSIDE BIAS

Ahead of Tuesday’s high-impact economic data release, the latest USDJPY risk reversal reading for the overnight forex options contract of -1.425 points to continued downside bias by traders as the demand for puts outweighs that of calls. A risk reversal reading below zero indicates that put option premium is greater than the premium for call options.

USDJPY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 07, 2020 TO AUGUST 26, 2020)

Also, USDJPY overnight implied volatility of 10.01%, which is modestly higher than its 12-month average of 6.04%, reveals the forex market’s heavy weight being placed on the August Consumer Confidence data print tomorrow. That said, spot USDJPY is estimated to fluctuate between 105.61-106.72 with a 68% statistical probability calculated using the currency pair’s overnight implied volatility reading. Spot USDJPY upside could be limited by technical resistance posed by the 20-day simple moving average and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the steep slide lower since late April.

USDJPY PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (JULY 30, 2020 TO AUGUST 26, 2020)

Spot USDJPY resistance becomes more evident when zooming in on a closer time frame. Technical confluence around the 106.30 price level is also highlighted by the 38.2% Fib of spot USDJPY’s trading range since July 31. Also, downtrend resistance could keep potential upside in spot USDJPY at bay going forward. Consequently, spot USDJPY could be at risk of drifting back lower with a disappointing Consumer Confidence report potentially serving as a catalyst that sparks a selloff in the US Dollar.

— Written by Rich Dvorak , Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

US Dollar Price Volatility Report: USD/CHF Eyes Fed & SNB

US DOLLAR CURRENCY VOLATILITY REMAINS ELEVATED AS FED DECISION LOOMS

  • USD price action will likely remain rangebound until the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks like the Swiss National Bank (SNB) provide clarity on their latest monetary policy stances
  • US Dollar implied volatility readings extend higher while monetary policy risk remains at the forefront of market themes next week
  • Find out how IG Client Sentiment data and insight on the bullish or bearish biases of retail forex market positioning can be incorporated into your trading strategy

US Dollar price action remains bogged down as Fed monetary policy uncertainty remains at large. Turbulence will likely carry over into next week and last until forex traders receive long-awaited clarity on what the FOMC and Chair Powell will announce at the Fed interest rate decision scheduled this coming Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Yet, volatility experienced by the US Dollar may continue even after the September Fed meeting considering several other major central banks are also expected to release monetary policy updates next week.

DXY INDEX – US DOLLAR PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 27, 2020 TO SEPTEMBER 13, 2020)

The DXY US Dollar Index is on set to close the week on its back-foot following a tear higher in spot EURUSD off of Thursday morning’s intraday low. With such a sharp move in the Euro against the US Dollar driven by the September ECB meeting , the DXY Index has slumped seeing that EURUSD comprises almost 60% of the benchmark. The US Dollar is still clinging onto technical support, however, with confluence around the 98.00-98.25 price level helping keep the DXY Index afloat.

If USD weakness accelerates ahead of the September Fed meeting, the DXY Index could look lower to its 50-day simple moving average and bullish trendline extended from the June 25 and August 23 swing lows for additional support. Conversely, if rate traders lose confidence in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reveal dovish action next week, the DXY US Dollar Index could test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its recent bullish leg since late June.

US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES (1-WEEK)

While EURUSD will likely take the spotlight seeing that it is the most liquid and heavily traded currency pair, 1-week implied volatility measures across the major US Dollar crosses draws attention to AUDUSD and USDCHF. The 1-week implied volatility reading for AUDUSD has rebounded from 5.39% on September 10, which fell in the bottom 1.1 percentile of measures over the last 12-months, with major Australian Dollar event risk and data releases. Specifically, the DailyFX Economic Calendar highlights the publication of meeting minutes from the September RBA meeting in addition to employment figures.

USDCHF 1-week implied volatility has climbed similarly in light of the market moving potential surrounding the September SNB meeting. Angst surrounding the SNB has mounted subsequent to the aggressive stimulus package announced by the ECB this past Thursday as markets contemplate the probability the Swiss will follow the lead of its European neighbors. Consequently, 6.99% 1-week implied volatility reading for USDCHF ranks in the top 90 th percentile of measures over the last 12-months. On another note, GBPUSD is expected to be the most volatile currency pair next week out of the majors, but it is worth mentioning that anticipated price action has been drifting lower as Brexit fears fade.

US DOLLAR RISK REVERSALS (1-WEEK)

US Dollar risk reversal metrics paint a mixed picture of the market’s exposure headed into next week. Risk reversal readings reflect the difference between call option implied volatility and put option implied volatility. As such, a risk reversal measure above 0 indicates that implied volatility for call options is greater than that for put options, which suggests currency option traders are seeking greater protection against price swings to the upside and can indicate a bullish bias. The USDCHF 1-week risk reversal of -0.5725 is in the bottom quartile of recent readings and hints that, on balance, currency traders are expecting spot prices to fall over the coming days.

USDCHF PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 18, 2020 TO SEPTEMBER 13, 2020)

We noted in our weekly US Dollar technical forecast published not long ago the breakout above downtrend resistance recently printed by spot USDCHF, which underscored the US Dollar’s underlying strength and potential for uptrend continuation. Although, USDCHF upside has so far run out of steam after touching technical resistance served by the mid-point retracement of the currency pair’s bearish stretch from April 26 to August 13 and the MACD indicator appears set to roll over. If USDCHF makes another attempt to push higher, it may also be thwarted by the 200-DMA as well as the estimated option-implied upper limit of its 1-standard deviation trading range at 0.9985 noted in the US Dollar implied volatility table above.

At the same time, USDCHF bulls may look to the 50-DMA, uptrend line since August and the 23.6% Fib level to potentially support spot prices. A confirmed break above the 200-DMA or below the 50-DMA stands to foreshadow if the recent uptrend under development will continue onward or if upward momentum will reverse back lower – and next week’s central bank decisions will likely serve as the catalyst for the move. Meanwhile, US Dollar price volatility around the September Fed meeting stands to linger as markets await the FOMC’s monetary policy update and revised economic projections.

— Written by Rich Dvorak , Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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