The “Twins” trading system

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The “Twins” trading system

The effectiveness of speculative operations on the financial market always depends on the quality and accuracy of the analysis that the trader conducts. To achieve stable performance indicators, all investors use strategies with a variety of market assessment techniques and analysis tools. Today we present the “Twins” indicator system, which works perfectly on the futures market and allows its users to achieve profitable trades at a rate of at least 87%. As a result, when applying this system any market player will be able to get fast and large capital increases in the shortest possible amount of time.

The operating principle of the strategy

The algorithm for assessing trading quotes on the “Twins” system is based on the use of indicators with combined analysis modes. To get started on the system, you will need to set up your trading chart. For these purposes, select a relatively volatile instrument for your asset and set the time frame period to 1 minute in the settings. Now configure the following indicator services on the chart field:

• Donchian Channel – the strategy requires an instrument for technical analysis of this format to determine the dynamic boundaries of market fluctuations on the chart. With the help of this service, we get on the liquidity chart clear indicators of market extremes in a certain time period of quote fluctuations, which will allow us to determine relatively clearly the possible points of trend movement change of the asset price

• Chaikin Oscillator – the system uses two oscillators of different formats that build two levels of the signal filtering system, which makes it possible to maximize the signal accuracy for trading and the effectiveness of the strategy

As you can see, the system uses a rather non-standard set of tools for trading platforms on the futures market. Therefore, if your terminal for options trading does not allow you to work with these indicators, you can take advantage of the free, professional live charts service on tradingview.com. After setting up the indicators and configuring the chart, you will see on your screen the following type of technical markup necessary for quote analysis:

Trading signals

To open a trade on the futures market UP, it is necessary to wait for the following combination of signals:

• The Conditional Expression indicator shows a stable upward trend with its moving

• As a result of building, the price quotes intersect the red level of the median of the Donchian channel upwards

• The moving of the Chaikin Oscillator intersects the scale’s median upwards or is already above the specified level

To open a trade on the futures market DOWN, it is necessary to wait for the following combination of signals:

• The Conditional Expression indicator shows a stable downward trend with its moving

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• As a result of building, the price quotes intersect the red level of the median of the Donchian channel downwards

• The moving of the Chaikin Oscillator intersects the scale’s median downwards or is already below the specified level

Trade expiration

The system generates up to 15 trading signals an hour – this allows you to engage in very dynamic trading with futures contracts, which opens up good prospects for a rapid increase in profits. To maximize the effectiveness of the strategy and rapidly increase your capital, use trades with an expiration range of 5 minutes. To reduce the dynamics of trading, you can use trades with an expiration of 15 minutes.

Money management

Under the standard conditions of market movement, the system almost never fails. But with bursts of volatility associated with news drivers influencing the market, the strategy can give incorrect trading signals, which leads to a loss of funds. To ensure that your capital does not suffer big losses, you must correctly set the risks for your trades – the optimal performance indicator for stable increases in capital is the level of 5% of the amount of capital for one contract.

“General Risk Warning: Binary options and cryptocurrency trading carry a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all your funds.”

The Twins went all-in on 2020 by trading for Kenta Maeda

The blockbuster drama between the Twins, Dodgers and Red Sox concluded Sunday evening as the deal that was first reported Tuesday finally came to fruition as two separate trades, with the Twins bolstering the starting rotation with right-hander Kenta Maeda while giving up right-hander Brusdar Graterol, who goes to the Dodgers rather than the Red Sox.

Now that your head is spinning, it’s time to analyze just what the Twins were thinking sending their flame-throwing phenom to Boston in exchange for someone that registered in the 37th percentile in fastball velocity (per Statcast) and will turn 32 in April.

Before getting into all of the numbers, there’s one thing clear about the way the front office views this team: While it’s not an up-and-coming ace making his way to Minnesota, the deal to acquire Maeda signals an all-in mentality for the 2020 season.

Why acquire Maeda?

On the surface, this looks like a deal in which the Twins got the short end of the straw. Graterol just had a meteoric rise through the Twins system last summer and even made a cameo at the end of the season in a bullpen role.

With a fastball that touched 103.8 mph last season, the Twins planned on keeping Graterol in the bullpen to establish an MLB routine, but obviously that has been scrapped to acquire a veteran that can help them win now.

Maeda’s overall numbers aren’t going to make a Hall of Fame case, but are the type of solid numbers the Twins didn’t have in their rotation last season. In 2020, Maeda went 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA and has gone 47-35 with a 3.87 ERA during his four-year career. But still, why does a 32-year-old warrant giving up a top prospect?

The answer is that Maeda knows how to miss bats. During his career, Maeda has registered a 9.8 K/9 rate and in 2020, he was off the charts, striking out 11 batters per nine innings. Those numbers tell one story, but there’s also a sense of consistency as SKOR North’s Declan Goff points out.

Long story short, hitters can’t figure out a way to square Maeda up. The right-hander thrived in exit velocity (96th percentile), hard-hit percentage (95th percentile) and ranked in the 73rd percentile with a 27.1% strikeout percentage, all of which would be a welcome change for a team that ranked 12th in strikeouts last season.

Why give up Graterol?

To get something, you have to give up something and in this case, that means parting with Graterol. His rise through the system was exciting late last summer, but it was also one that seemed to be accelerated with reckless abandon.

Graterol began the season at Double-A Pensacola and put up terrific numbers going 5-0 with a 1.89 ERA in nine starts (47 2/3 innings). But that would be the bulk of his work after a shoulder impingement knocked him out for roughly two months. That left him in the bullpen and although he found his way to Minnesota, he’s still a raw prospect.

The Twins’ plan to put him in the bullpen was a solid way to get him more exposure at the major-league level and keep him as a contingency plan in case the rotation tanked at the end of the year. But for someone that hasn’t thrown more than 102 innings in his career and averaged just over 55 innings in his two full professional seasons, this might be a question of if he’ll ever be durable enough to become a full-time starter.

Another thing to consider is that pitchers who throw that hard don’t tend to last that long. A name that comes to Twins fan’s minds should be Joel Zumaya, who threw 98.6 mph during his rookie season in 2006, but only lasted five big-league seasons. More locally, the list of Twins prospects with the hardest fastballs (provided by Twins Daily’s John Bonnes) isn’t loaded with superstars.

  • Juan Morillo 100.3 mph
  • Trevor May 99.8 mph
  • Ryan Pressly 99.0 mph
  • JT Chargois 98.9 mph
  • Fernando Romero 98.7 mph

Graterol has considerable upside and was ranked as a top-100 prospect by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, but he also had concerns that made him expendable. With the opportunity to swap him for a player with MLB experience and success, that’s what made him appealing to a team that is officially in “win-now” mode.

How the Twins are going all-in on 2020

The Twins entered the offseason with the dreaded “impact pitching” quote, but their real objective may have been to upgrade the starting rotation heading into 2020. While they couldn’t land a big name, they acquired several legitimate big-league arms that should provide a boost and even some upside in the opening months.

  • Jose Berrios 14-8, 3.68 ERA
  • Jake Odorizzi 15-7, 3.51 ERA
  • Kenta Maeda 10-8, 4.04 ERA
  • Homer Bailey 13-9, 4.57 ERA

This list doesn’t include Michael Pineda (11-5, 4.01 ERA) and Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA), who will join the rotation at a later stage, likely mid-May for Pineda and sometime around June for Hill. But they’ll have options until they’re ready with the recently signed Jhoulys Chacin battling with Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak for a chance to hold the fort down. As BMTN’s Joe Nelson pointed out, this is significantly more than they had at the end of last year.

This also doesn’t include prospects Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic, who also could become this year’s Graterol and force their way to Minnesota in the next couple of seasons. Duran and Balazovic have each posted incredible strikeout numbers in the minors.

If the Twins were dipping their toes into the water with the signing of Josh Donaldson, they executed a full-blown cannonball by acquiring Maeda. The loss of Graterol is tough, but Twins fans were also enamored by Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero once upon a time.

With a team knocking on the doorstep, this is a great deal for the Twins.

The Twins need to trade some of their prospects

Believe it or not, there are other reasons besides BULLPEN HELP

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Jorge Alcala could be on the move as a high ceiling prospect Photo by Daniel Venn

Think the Twins need some bullpen help? Would you be interested in an ace-level starter? Don’t think the “cheap Pohlads” have the guts to pull off a couple of quality deals to help strengthen the roster?

Well, luckily, the Pohlads aren’t the ones doing the trading, as Falvine will be manning the phone lines come July. And while some may question the Twins’ willingness to deal their prospects for major leaguers at the deadline, there are more reasons than you probably think why the Twins will pull off multiple deals at the deadline.

Falvey and Levine have stated that they will be aggressive when the time comes for the club to pursue a postseason run, and I don’t think it can be any more obvious than it is now that the winning window is open and ready for the Twins head onto the path of Winnersville.

It’s obvious that the bullpen will need some upgrades before the fall of autumn, and a top-tier starter would also be helpful in making a playoff run. Acquiring these talents may come at a high cost, but the Twins prospect depth is equipped for just such a situation. And if the Twins don’t end up trading those prospects this summer, they may lose them anyway to one of baseball’s classic quirks: the Rule 5 draft.

You can read a more in-depth explanation of the Rule 5 draft here, but essentially what you need to know is that minor league players are be able to picked in the draft after five years in professional baseball if they are signed at 18 or earlier, and four years if they are signed at 19 or older. Once picked, the Rule 5 pick has to remain on the team’s 25-man roster for the whole season or he will be subjected to waivers and then sent back to their former team.

Fangraphs post-draft rankings have the Twins’ farm system ranked seventh in baseball. The Twins do have some top end talent, but the strength in their system is in their depth. They rank third in baseball with a 38 prospects who have a 40 or higher future value on Fangraphs’ rankings, behind just the Padres and Rays. With a bevy of quality mid-level prospects, the Twins won’t be able to stash all of them on the 40-man roster, and it would be better to use those assets than expose them to the Rule 5 draft. Here is a list of notable Twins prospects that will be available in the Rule 5 draft if not protected on the 40-man roster. I sorted them into three tiers according to the value that may fetch in a deadline deal

Tier 1: A main piece in a trade for a high-level target

Tier Two: A main piece in a trade for a quality trade target (likely relief) or second piece for a high-level target

  • Jorge Alcala (AA)
  • Wander Javier (Low-A)
  • Jhoan Duran (A+)

Tier Three: A main piece for a mid-to-low level trade target or a 2nd or 3rd piece for a more valuable MLB asset

  • Griffin Jax (AA)
  • Travis Blankenhorn (AA)
  • Lewin Diaz (A+)

Tier Four: A decent throw-in piece in any trade

  • Jaylin Davis (AAA)
  • Luke Raley (AAA)
  • Zander Weil (AAA)

A special thanks to Jeremy Nygaards’ Twins Roster and Payroll spreadsheet, where I was able to spot Rule 5 eligible players.

That list includes some of the Twins top prospects, as well as a few mid-level guys having good seasons. I wouldn’t expect a majority of them to be bumped up to the 40-man in the offseason, so they could be quality trade bait as the Twins approach the deadline. Ideally the Twins will make a couple trades for more than rentals at the deadline and sign a quality starter or two in free agency, and with a pretty solid core it doesn’t seem likely that there will be a ton of spots open on the Twins 40-man roster for next season.

While some fans may be concerned the Twins’ front office won’t pull the trigger at the deadline because they will instead hold on tight to their prospects, this philosophy wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense. With a list of quality players that could be selected in the Rule 5 and one of the deepest farm systems in the big leagues, the Twins need to deal some of their prospects to recoup value. And I have faith that Falvine will do just that once the calendar swings to July.

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