The S&P 500 Price Forecast For 2020

Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • Binarium
    Binarium

    Best Binary Broker!
    Perfect for beginners!
    Free Demo Account! Free Trading Education!

  • Binomo
    Binomo

    Only for experienced traders!

S&P 500 Index analysis and forecast: all bets off the table

To say that the S&P 500 performance in 2020 has been a continuation of 2020 was an accurate statement through the first few weeks of the new decade. To say that this is the case in early March would be a grave error.

The S&P 500 index hit a record closing high of 3,386 in early 2020 but coronavirus-related concerns sent the index plummeting lower. The index has since fallen more than 15 per cent. Among the 500 stocks included in the index, more than 40 had lost more than half of their value.

Trade USA 500 – US500 CFD

S&P 500 latest news part one: let the good times roll

Street analysts had many reasons to be optimistic in their S&P 500 predictions at the end of 2020. After all, the “phase one” trade deal between the US and China was signed and US President Donald Trump called off an airstrike against Iran a few months prior which could have expanded into an all-out war.

Meanwhile, the American consumer ended 2020 in great shape – incomes were rising, unemployment was near-record lows. A combination of tax cuts from prior years and cheap gas at the pump meant the consumer was ready to help fuel the economy’s growth in 2020 and beyond.

In other words, the times were good. Piper Jaffray analyst Craig Johnson’s S&P 500 forecast called for a 12.8 per cent gain – the most bullish on the Street. This was followed by BTIG’s Julian Emanuel and Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer who modeled for an 8.1 per cent gain and a 7.8 per cent gain, respectively.

Part two: coronavirus spooks investors

The coronavirus started to dominate global headlines in late 2020 as China’s government confirmed ahead of the New Year that dozens of its people became sick in Wuhan. The virus slowly started to spread across the world over the coming weeks but investors mostly brushed off any concern.

Many Wall Street analysts stuck with their SPX forecast in early February. For example, JP Morgan’s head of global and European equity strategy commented that the “fallout from the outbreak is unlikely to hurt [economic] activity prints over the medium term”, according to CNBC.

Morgan Stanley’s head of US equity strategy was on the wrong side when he commented that the correction “will be contained to 5 per cent.”

From this, the only conclusion investors can make is that no conclusion can be made. Experts were caught off guard and can’t be counted on to be trusted with any future S&P 500 forecast.

Part three: Saudi Arabia declares an oil war

Saudi Arabia’s public break-up with Russia marked an end to a multi-year partnership to support oil prices. In return, a de facto oil war was declared with Saudi Arabia threatening to increase its daily production to flood the global oil market.

Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • Binarium
    Binarium

    Best Binary Broker!
    Perfect for beginners!
    Free Demo Account! Free Trading Education!

  • Binomo
    Binomo

    Only for experienced traders!

US oil companies would likely be caught in the middle, many of which are small and at a serious disadvantage against industry titan Saudi Aramco. At the time of writing, the US federal government was only rumoured to be preparing a financial assistance package for the industry.

Oil prices crashed more than 30 per cent in a single day on March 9 and sent many oil stocks included in the S&P 500 index lower. Most notably, Occidental Petroleum, fresh off its $55bn acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, lost around 50 per cent and was worth just $11bn.

Energy stocks’ devastation brought its total representation in the S&P 500 index to around 3.6 per cent. Regardless of any progress in tackling the coronavirus, all S&P 500 index analysis forecasts for 2020 need to be altered given a drastic, dramatic and sudden shift in oil dynamics.

Saudi vs Russia oil price war

S&P 500 Index analysis: volatility, volatility, volatility

Part of the difficulty in attempting a year-ending S&P 500 index forecast is due to the extreme day-to-day volatility which gained momentum in late February.

Here is a list of the largest daily point gains for the index. The pattern should be obvious.

The same pattern presents itself in the list of the largest daily point declines for the index.

S&P 500 Index forecast: what’s next? Who knows?

What’s next for the stock market can be summarised in three words: no one knows.

As of the time of writing, the S&P 500 index finished a monster rally (March 10) and gained more than 135 points. But one day prior the index collapsed 225 points. So is the rally back on? No, because a look at the futures market points to a 40 point loss.

The market is either up big or down big. There is no middle ground – at least for the time being. Investors looking at very short-term trends and jumping to a conclusion, either way, could get caught on the wrong side of the SPX analysis.

The fact is there are too many unknowns plaguing the market.

A quick scan of the most recent news shows the UK minister Nadine Dorries tested positive for the coronavirus. Across the pond, New York State dispatched the National Guard to New Rochelle. Should these trends play out across the world and more regions are placed in complete quarantine as in Italy, SPX forecast calls for more selling. How much more is unclear.

But there is simultaneously a handful of encouraging news. Scientists in Israel are weeks away from a potentially working vaccine for the coronavirus while scientists at the University of Tennessee may have found an actual cure.

Assuming either option can be scaled and mass-produced for worldwide consumption in record time, the coronavirus could become a distant memory by the end of the year. But even if this is the case, how much can the index rebound? Some of the losses? Most of the losses? All of the losses? Who knows?

S&P 500 Stock Index Forecast

Below is a forecast of the Standard and Poor’s 500, or S&P 500, broken down by month. This forecast is produced based on prior values of the S&P 500 along with other factors such as other stock market indexes, interest rates, currency exchange rates, and economic indicators. To learn more about how this forecast is produced, please see our methodology page.

S&P 500 Forecast Values by Month.

Stock Price Index Values, Average of Month.

Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error
0 Mar 2020 2649.57 ±0.00
1 Apr 2020 2466 ±27
2 May 2020 2525 ±35
3 Jun 2020 2592 ±40
4 Jul 2020 2636 ±44
5 Aug 2020 2595 ±46
6 Sep 2020 2671 ±49
7 Oct 2020 2719 ±50
8 Nov 2020 2744 ±52

Modified: April 01, 2020

Trend Chart of S&P 500 with Predictions

Stock Price Index Values, Average of Month.

S&P 500 Historical Values

Stock Price Index. Average of Month.

Date Historical Value
Mar 2020 2080.53
Apr 2020 2094.16
May 2020 2110.58
Jun 2020 2100.54
Jul 2020 2093.40
Aug 2020 2042.32
Sep 2020 1945.95
Oct 2020 2020.71
Nov 2020 2080.25
Dec 2020 2054.83
Jan 2020 1921.11
Feb 2020 1903.44
Mar 2020 2020.30
Apr 2020 2074.82
May 2020 2064.59
Jun 2020 2083.31
Jul 2020 2146.89
Aug 2020 2177.21
Sep 2020 2157.34
Oct 2020 2144.40
Nov 2020 2163.29
Dec 2020 2246.63
Jan 2020 2273.69
Feb 2020 2327.37
Mar 2020 2366.67
Apr 2020 2359.74
May 2020 2394.48
Jun 2020 2433.83
Jul 2020 2453.16
Aug 2020 2456.53
Sep 2020 2491.67
Oct 2020 2556.06
Nov 2020 2591.59
Dec 2020 2665.32
Jan 2020 2787.41
Feb 2020 2708.32
Mar 2020 2705.25
Apr 2020 2655.24
May 2020 2699.28
Jun 2020 2754.47
Jul 2020 2791.44
Aug 2020 2856.33
Sep 2020 2901.70
Oct 2020 2790.12
Nov 2020 2720.98
Dec 2020 2572.86
Jan 2020 2601.87
Feb 2020 2752.22
Mar 2020 2803.30
Apr 2020 2903.56
May 2020 2850.78
Jun 2020 2889.29
Jul 2020 2994.99
Aug 2020 2898.31
Sep 2020 2981.34
Oct 2020 2977.50
Nov 2020 3102.55
Dec 2020 3175.88
Jan 2020 3277.26
Feb 2020 3281.19
Mar 2020 2649.57

The S&P 500, or the Standard and Poor’s 500, is a U.S. stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 of the largest companies having common stock listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ stock exchanges. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indexes, and it is a fair representation of the value of the U.S. stock market as a whole.

The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index in that the weight of each company’s stock price is determined by the total market value of that company’s outstanding shares. This means that as the price of one particular stock increases, that stock price is weighted more heavily in the calculation of the index.

Other Stock Market Resources of Interest:

A long range forecast for the S&P 500 and many other stock market indexes is available by subscription. Click here for more information or to subscribe now!

Goldman Slashes S&P 500 Forecast, Calling for End to Bull Market

LISTEN TO ARTICLE

SHARE THIS ARTICLE

Pedestrians pass in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S.

David Kostin just made a bold call: The 11-year-old bull market in U.S. stocks is about to become history.

The chief strategist for U.S. equities at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 while trimming his profit estimates for a second time in a month. Earnings will drop at least 12% in each of the next two quarters as plunging oil prices and the spread of the coronavirus hurt businesses, he said.

With profits poised to collapse and sentiment to worsen, Kostin now expects the benchmark index to drop to 2,450 by the middle of 2020. That represents a 15% decline from the last close and a 28% slump from its February peak, a loss that if materialized would mean equities enter a bear market.

“We believe the S&P 500 bull-market will soon end,” Kostin wrote in a note to clients. “The deterioration in fundamentals is visible.”

Kostin joined Jonathan Golub at Credit Suisse Group AG in turning more skeptical on stocks amid growing strains on corporate profits. He lowered his 2020 earnings estimate to $157 a share from $165 . Earlier in February, he expected companies to earn $174 a share.

But investors shouldn’t give up on stocks yet, the strategist suggested. Things will get better in the second half as the negative impact of the virus wanes and profits rebound, he said. While reducing his year-end target for the S&P 500 by 200 points to 3,200, Kostin still sees gains equaling to 11% from Tuesday’s close.

“A new bull market will likely be born later this year,” he wrote.

Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • Binarium
    Binarium

    Best Binary Broker!
    Perfect for beginners!
    Free Demo Account! Free Trading Education!

  • Binomo
    Binomo

    Only for experienced traders!

Like this post? Please share to your friends:
How To Choose Binary Options Broker
Leave a Reply

;-) :| :x :twisted: :smile: :shock: :sad: :roll: :razz: :oops: :o :mrgreen: :lol: :idea: :grin: :evil: :cry: :cool: :arrow: :???: :?: :!: